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Crisis in Ukraine: French intelligence imagines three possible scenarios

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Americans and Russians begin talks today in Geneva, Switzerland. The balance of power promises to be very tense since Russia has already indicated that it would refuse any concession and is raising the threat of invasion. French intelligence has already anticipated three possible scenarios.

TO ANALYSE

Crucial day for the future of Ukraine. While Russia has already announced that it does not want to make any concessions, the European armies are not ruling out the possibility of Ukraine’s military intervention. Three options are on the table. The first is an outright invasion of Ukraine. According to the French intelligence services, this could be done in less than a week. Between 100,000 and 150,000 troops are currently deployed along the border.

In this scenario, significant human losses are announced, including on the side of the Russian forces. According to information from Europe 1, the British have already planned an emergency evacuation plan for their nationals.

Annex the Donbass or nibble land to the south

Another invasion plan is closely scrutinized, as it is deemed much more likely by a senior French officer. That of the annexation of Donbass, a region in the east of Ukraine. The Russians could trigger an incident there to pretend an intervention and send the tanks and infantry.

Finally, the third scenario, that of the conquest of strategic cities in the south of Ukraine to build a bridge with Crimea annexed in 2014 by Russia.

A military, economic and information war

Either way, European headquarters have in mind the strategy developed by Russian General Valery Gerasimov: a “new generation war”, a total conflict that is at once military, economic and informational. Because the adhesion of Ukrainians to the Russian presence is considered crucial, in order to be able to hold out over time.

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