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Ukraine: a Russian declaration of war would be imminent

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This Monday, May 9, Moscow celebrates its victory against Nazi Germany in 1945. For the occasion, a large military parade and a speech by Vladimir Putin are planned. According to the American and British intelligence services, the Russian president will take the opportunity to officially declare war on Ukraine.

“Victory will be ours in Ukraine as in 1945.” Comparison signed Vladimir Putin, the master of the Kremlin, more confident than ever as Russia celebrates the defeat of Nazi Germany in Moscow on Monday. A parade of tanks and military planes is planned, including the famous Iliouchine 80, the plane of the Apocalypse which would embark the Russian general staff in the event of nuclear war. Moscow wants to show that it can assume its threats. And this May 9 is the ideal date to ensure the support of its population.

“A national holiday to unite and unify all of Russian society”

This symbolic date is fundamental in Vladimir Putin’s policy, as explained by Carol Grimaud Potter, specialist in Russian issues: “It was taken up and made sacred when Vladimir Putin was in power. This national holiday activates this lever of patriotism to bring together and unify all of Russian society”, she specified before detailing: “It is always a military parade with arms, with the soldiers. They use it of course. This propaganda and this state patriotism is very effective.”

This is not the first time that the Russian president has used this celebration to establish his domination: “It worked well for Crimea. The Kremlin is trying to take over this Crimean consensus, but transform it into a Donbass consensus, it knows that the population must support him. And this celebration of May 9, of course, is there to reinforce precisely this consensus around the president.

An expected speech by Putin

The highlight of this May 9 parade in Moscow will certainly be Vladimir Putin’s speech. American and British intelligence services are convinced that he will officially declare war on Ukraine. “Absurd,” replied the Kremlin spokesman. However, going to war could change a lot of things, as attested by Jean de Gliniasty, the former French ambassador to Moscow and current director of research at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations.

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“It would give him superior means for mobilizing in favor of war,” he said at the microphone of Europe 1. “For example, he could declare martial law. It would accentuate control over society and that would perhaps make it easier for him to call on conscripts in the war against Ukraine, since there is a severe shortage of manpower in Ukraine. And from the moment, there is a state of war. Let’s say that recruitment conscripts, on which he has been quite cautious up to now, will be easier for him.”

The shadow of this conflict in Ukraine will hover over Strasbourg on Monday. Emmanuel Macron will address the European Parliament before a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin.

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